From the President’s Desk: Sliding Closer To the Brink

Middle Rio Grande Compact Violation Looms as Water Use Outpaces Legal Limits

I joined a small group of Santa Feans concerned about New Mexico’s water future at their June 3rd monthly breakfast meeting. I appreciated the invitation from Denise Fort, who organizes these and the chance to speak directly with folks who care deeply about our state’s most pressing water issues.

Tragedy of the commons: each user of a common pool resource pursues their own needs with only self-imposed limits, but the cumulative result is system-wide overuse

We had an animated conversation about New Mexico’s almost silent, almost unknowing drift to the brink of a brand-new Rio Grande Compact violation. In the Middle Rio Grande, we are living the tragedy of the commons: each user pursues their own needs within self-imposed limits, but the cumulative result is a system-wide overuse that exceeds our legal share under the Compact. Our surface water supply this year is near record lows, yet our demands continue—pushing groundwater pumping to unsustainable levels. We prepared the graphics below to illustrate the situation demanding New Mexico’s and the Middle Valley’s adaptation.

 

When 2025 began, New Mexico had a 76,000 acre-feet margin before violating the Compact’s 200,000 acre-feet cumulative under-delivery limit. But by my calculations, as of the end of May we’ve delivered only 39% of the Otowi Index Flow—when we should have delivered 57%. That puts us 38,000 acre-feet behind on required deliveries already this year, using up half of our remaining margin in just five months.

Without a strong monsoon, we risk triggering a new lawsuit from Texas in the U.S. Supreme Court. Former ISC Director Rolf Schmidt-Petersen and I agree: without a strong monsoon, New Mexico is at risk to violate the Rio Grande Compact under-delivery limit this year, and if not this year, in 2026.

The group discussion raised hard questions: Who knows? Who cares? Why must New Mexico’s water overuse, even that that creates shortages for other New Mexicans, be managed retroactively by judicial order rather than proactively by our elected and appointed officials?

It’s worth noting: the only prolific aquifer in the state that provides water to many irrigators and is well-managed against overuse got its governance start with a New Mexico judicial order about 90 years ago. (If you know which one, you’re paying attention. Hint: it’s in southeast NM)

A Presentation Worth Watching

A welcomed bright spot came at our May 15 Water Advocates workshop, where Nat Chakeres gave the most accessible and well-organized presentation I’ve seen on the Middle Rio Grande compact situation. Nat, General Counsel to the New Mexico State Engineer, not only explained the problem—he presented a new, bold policy approach to confronting it.

I’ve posted a 53-minute video focused only on Nat’s policy presentation, cutting the before-and-after material. It’s essential viewing for anyone concerned about the Compact. My draft log listing Nat’s time-stamped recording segments is available. Visit nmwateradvocates.org/events for the full workshop video, including Q&A, and his slide deck.

Thanks to Nat for his candor, clarity, and courage—and to State Engineer Liz Anderson, whose leadership made these strategic shifts possible. State Engineer Anderson represents a new generation of leadership. The NM Senate confirmed her appointment during the 2025 Legislature. We look forward to hearing the details and timing of her strategy to rein in unsustainable water overuse in the Middle Rio Grande and prevent more U.S. Supreme Court litigation with Texas.

Upcoming: Basin Study Community Organizations Sector

The Rio Grande Basin Study is entering its next phase—modeling how different climate storylines affect water supply and demand and testing strategies for adaptation. Compact compliance will be a hard constraint for an acceptable adaptation approach.

The Bureau of Reclamation invited the Water Advocates to convene a Community Organizations committee to formally participate. We did in 2021, but the effort was premature. We’re restarting that effort now that the timing is right. A virtual meeting is set for June 24 at 10:30 a.m. Community organizations from the headwaters to Elephant Butte Dam are welcome. If you represent one and are interested in participating, please contact me directly. We will all learn a lot, from the modeling and from each other.

Reclamation staff will join us on June 24 to present and answer questions. Reclamation’s Rio Grande Basin Study is fully funded and will proceed to completion in another two to three years, unless the national Basin Study program is terminated. If completed, it will help show us what we must do to adapt to living with far less water.

Meanwhile, at the Capitol

After the breakfast, I attended the organizing meeting of the Water and Natural Resources Interim Committee. There were more legislators present than the dais and tables set in front of the dais could accommodate in one of the large Capitol committee rooms. The pending Middle Rio Grande Compact violation and risk of litigation was not among the priority topics identified by legislators for committee evaluation—at least while I was there. In contrast, the Lower Rio Grande litigation, desalination, aquifer mapping, and regional water security planning were named priorities by multiple legislators.

I offered a brief public comment about the urgent compact situation. Senator Larry Scott followed me out and asked for clarification—he had not been aware of the Compact risk or the potential for new US Supreme Court Texas v. New Mexico case.  I report this only to say this is a criticism of our state water agencies and the Executive. The failure to communicate is on them.

Let Us All Do Our Part

This isn’t just about lawsuits or water law. It’s about protecting our home—now and for future generations. We must summon the courage to acknowledge what’s happening and adapt to living with less water.

In your own way, pray for New Mexico’s water leadership—those already engaged and those who are emerging. Pray for the monsoon. And pray for New Mexico, our querencia, so precious, so close to Texas.