Water Overuse and Legal Crisis Ahead
2025 Facts and a Call to Action
New Mexico is not confronting a legal and water management crisis in the Middle Rio Grande. Public conversations are missing, including at the 2025 Legislature. The central question:
What actions are being taken—or not taken—to change our trajectory toward violating the Rio Grande Compact due to chronic annual depletion in the Middle Rio Grande of large volumes of the Lower Rio Grande’s water?
Nine interrelated facts together define this perilous situation—one that remains largely unacknowledged and without an adequate response.
1. 2025 is shaping up to be a record-dry year.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s February Annual Operating Plan projects dry river conditions across the Middle Rio Grande from May through August. Hydrographs show stretches of the river drying for months. “Central” refers to the gage at the Central Ave bridge in Albuquerque. San Acacia Floodway refers to the flow in the river downstream from the San Acacia diversion dam located north of Socorro.
2. Snowpack collapse is historic.
- The Rio Chama snowpack recently has set record daily lows: zero percentile snow water equivalent!
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Rio Grande Colorado headwaters: 5th percentile.
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The Upper Rio Grande snowpack in New Mexico: 4th percentile.
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Upper San Juan: 5th percentile
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2025 San Juan–Chama Project deliveries in 2025 at record low: projected to be 46% of the 1990s “firm yield” used in regional supply planning, including the Albuquerque Water Authority’s 100-year plan.
3. Rio Chama runoff may not meet critical obligations.
At the March 20 ISC meeting, Director Hannah Riseley-White warned that total Rio Chama runoff may not meet the federal storage target for Pueblo prior and paramount water. Federal agencies plan to store record volumes of Rio Chama to ensure the Pueblos’ water supply.
4. Compact compliance requires delivery of 57% of native flow entering the Middle Valley to Elephant Butte.
Flow entering the Middle Valley includes the Rio Chama. If Chama runoff is dedicated to meet the Pueblos’ prior and paramount water rights, is it possible for the State to meet the 57% delivery requirement to Elephant Butte?
5. Compact delivery debt is dangerously high.
Since 2018, the Middle Rio Grande has depleted 155,800 acre-feet of the Lower Rio Grande’s water. As of January 1, 2025, New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande cumulative water delivery debit stands at -124,000 acre-feet. Another 76,000 acre-feet of water debt will violate the Compact. Annual water delivery debts have exceeded 76,000 acre-feet in five of 85 years, historically.
Such a violation is certain to trigger Texas to file a new United States Supreme Court lawsuit, compounding the ongoing Lower Rio Grande litigation and exposing the state and the Middle Rio Grande to legal, economic, and political risk. Half of New Mexico’s population and economy resides in the Middle Rio Grande zone of chronic water overuse—and imminent legal exposure.
6. The State Engineer has issued clear warnings.
A fact sheet prepared for the 2025 Legislature stated:
“A compact violation could trigger curtailment and/or costly litigation that may result in severe and unpredictable shocks to the economy and water supply for agricultural and municipal users in the middle and lower Rio Grande.”
7. The Legislature did not fund prevention efforts.
The 2025 Legislature rejected the Governor’s proposed $500,000 increase for State Engineer compact compliance staff.
8. Enforcement legislation failed again.
For the second year, lawmakers declined to pass legislation that would authorize the State Engineer to take effective administrative enforcement against illegal water use.
9. Active Water Resource Management is missing in action.
Despite the New Mexico Supreme Court’s 2012 unanimous opinion approval upholding the statute and detailed General Rules in 2012, district-specific rules for the Middle Rio Grande have not been adopted.
New State Engineer Liz Anderson may move ahead to ensure compliance with the AWRM law, Section 72-2-9.1 NMSA 1978, which states,
“A. The legislature recognizes that the adjudication process is slow, the need for water administration is urgent, compliance with interstate compacts is imperative and the state engineer has authority to administer water allocations in accordance with the water right priorities recorded with or declared or otherwise available to the state engineer.
B. The state engineer shall adopt rules for priority administration to ensure that authority is exercised: … “
Ask Yourself
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Why have New Mexico elected leaders not responded to this preventable crisis?
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Do they and we realize we’re enabling or participating in a tragedy of the commons?
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Why aren’t we implementing and enforcing the present state water laws designed to prevent that?
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Are our decision-makers—and the public—adequately informed?
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Ask our leaders and water institutions, besides praying for monsoons, what are we doing?
A Call to Action
The 2025 Legislature is over, but this crisis can’t wait until the Legislature reconvenes in January 2026. Two critical avenues remain.
1. Engage the Legislative Interim Committees
Interim committees shape next year’s legislation. We must:
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Urge committee chairs—especially Legislative Finance and Water and Natural Resources—to hold hearings on compact compliance.
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Provide clear presentations connecting snowpack and flow data to our legal obligations.
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Emphasize the stakes and costs of not confronting the crisis.
Engaging legislators and interim committees is how we build understanding and momentum for action in the 2026 Legislature. Reinstating the compact compliance staff cut from the Governor’s 2025 budget request must be a top priority. The State Engineer cannot meet this challenge without them.
2. Press State Agencies to Act Now
The Interstate Stream Commission and Office of the State Engineer already have:
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Statutory authority to confront and manage this crisis,
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Clear legal obligations to deliver compact water and enforce priorities, and
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Substantial human and budget resources.
They must immediately:
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Declare an emergency.
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Declare compact compliance a top priority.
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Publicly assess delivery risk and publish a response plan.
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Communicate and coordinate with all water users to reduce depletions.
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Implement the Active Water Resource Management framework now.
These are not new ideas. They are long-standing obligations. What’s missing is action.
We still have a chance to avert this avoidable disaster. The time to act is now.
May 6, 2025 @ 12:36 pm
As a lay person, I have a big question in reference to numbers 4 and 5 — what actions are needed? To comply with compact, it means a reduction in water use, right? or finding “illegal” water use? And who exactly are we talking about – farmers? residential users? industry users? combination? What would it look like for the State Engineer to enforce illegal water use?
Thank you for keeping us well-informed.