A Bureau of Reclamation hydrologic engineer promptly responded to my request for updated Rio Grande Compact accounting data through August 2025. Based on that information and my analysis, the Middle Rio Grande’s 2025 water delivery shortfall is alarmingly large. Summer rains wet the land but not the river, leaving New Mexico much closer to serious legal jeopardy.
167,600 Acre-Feet Cumulative Water Delivery Debt At August’s End
As the chart illustrates, New Mexico accumulated a 167,600 acre-foot water delivery debt under the Rio Grande Compact as of the end of August 2025. That includes:
- 43,600 acre-feet of underdelivery during 2025 (so far), and
- 124,000 acre-feet of accumulated shortfall between 2018 and 2025, as agreed by the Rio Grande Compact Commission.
The Compact sets a legal maximum debit of 200,000 acre-feet.
Federal Water Storage for Pueblos
To support the six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos’ “prior and paramount” rights to water, federal agencies stored as much native Rio Chama water as possible earlier this year in El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs. While about 3,800 acre-feet has been released to date, over 26,000 acre-feet remains stored. Reclamation traditionally releases the remaining stored water in December for delivery to Elephant Butte Reservoir.
The heat of summer and accelerated groundwater pumping are causing extreme losses of the river’s flow to seepage and evaporation. The shallow groundwater under the riverbed must be recharged before the river can deliver water to Elephant Butte. How much water will actually reach Elephant Butte by the end of this year? No one knows.
My educated guess: New Mexico will end 2025 with a cumulative delivery debt of roughly 160,000 acre-feet—perilously close to the legal limit.
Restored Compact Credit Breathing Room Is Now Gone
New Mexico reached agreement with Texas and Colorado in 2021 to restore 32,400 acre-feet of Compact credit. This resolved a long-standing dispute stemming from Reclamation’s 2011 illegal taking of New Mexico’s credit water.
Without that restored credit, New Mexico’s delivery debt as of August 31 would be equal to the 200,000 acre-foot legal cap. [124,000 + 43,600 + 32,400 = 200,000]
Official Action Delayed?
Nat Chakeres is the top lawyer for New Mexico’s top water official, the New Mexico State Engineer. In his excellent May 2025 Water Advocates workshop presentation, he said the State Engineer planned to begin official regulatory action soon, including a Middle Rio Grande metering order and warning letters to the Middle Rio Grande’s largest groundwater pumpers. If those actions have occurred, they have not been made public.
Bandwidth is a likely reason: the extreme workload and pressures of finalizing and filing the incredibly complex Lower Rio Grande litigation settlement documents and preparing for trials yet to come. The Special Master’s deadline was August 29; the Special Master will preside over a trial later this year. That trial will lead to the Special Master’s decision to forward the settlement to the SCOTUS. The Justices will decide after their 2026 trial.
Meanwhile, the Middle Rio Grande is squarely on the path to a new Compact violation and Texas complaint. As in the Lower Rio Grande, unregulated groundwater pumping is a major cause.