October’s Big Storm Helped the River But the Middle Rio Grande Depleted 40% of the Lower Rio Grande’s Share
An intense rainstorm centered on the San Juan River mountain headwaters spilled over into the headwaters of the Rio Grande, sending a surge of mountain runoff into the San Luis Valley. This is the storm that flooded Pagosa Springs. The October 14 Alamosa Citizen story headline on the flood was followed by the reporter’s understanding of routine Colorado water management in the subtitle, “Now it’s time to measure and account for the extra water in management of the Rio Grande Compact.”
The Rio Grande at the Del Norte gage peaked at 7,000 cubic feet per second—a very high flow for autumn. The Colorado Division of Water Resources contemporaneously estimated 20,000 to 25,000 acre-feet entered the San Luis Valley in Colorado, and reported that 15,000 acre-feet was diverted into the Valley’s canals. Colorado’s Rio Grande Division Engineer, Pat McDermott, told the Rio Grande Basin Roundtable that the Middle Rio Grande might see roughly 5,000 acre-feet of this water, but that it would likely not extend as far south as Elephant Butte Reservoir. The Rio Grande benefit in New Mexico actually was much larger but he was right about Elephant Butte.
Because the Rio Grande Compact divides the river’s flow among Colorado, the upper, middle and lower Rio Grande in New Mexico, and the Lower Rio Grande in Texas, how each state measures and manages water determines whether its downstream obligations are met.
The irrigation season in Colorado and New Mexico ended November 1. Colorado flows increased as a result but are tapering down. Deliveries into Elephant Butte are now slowly increasing, but didn’t benefit from the Colorado flood. The contrast between Colorado’s prompt accounting and New Mexico’s limited conveyance is striking.
A Growing Water-Delivery Debt
The Middle Rio Grande entered the year 124,000 acre-feet behind in its accrued annual water deliveries to Elephant Butte Reservoir. Throughout the year, that debt has inexorably grown due to the complete failure of this year’s spring runoff and the Middle Rio Grande’s excessive depletions over the last 15 years. New Mexico does not manage the Middle Valley’s groundwater pumping, which accelerated due to lack of river water, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District’s diverting more than New Mexico’s share, and poor channel conveyance.
Neither the State Engineer nor the Interstate Stream Commission have publicly discussed this year’s growing debt. Neither has emphasized New Mexico’s serious risk of a new violation of the Rio Grande Compact due to the Middle Rio Grande’s chronic taking of the Lower Rio Grande’s share, year after year.
I decided to calculate what happened on the Rio Grande in New Mexico from the storm. I used online river and reservoir gage data from October 12 through November 9, the last day for which a complete data set is available online. My calculations show that between those dates, 40,900 acre-feet of water flowed under the highway bridge to Los Alamos as measured at the Otowi Bridge gage. Colorado state-line water deliveries were about 60 percent; the other 40 percent came from New Mexico springs and tributaries. The Lower Rio Grande’s share of that, which is the same thing as the Middle Rio Grande’s delivery obligation, was 23,300 acre-feet.
Elephant Butte’s storage increased only 14,000 acre-feet and releases were 100 acre-feet, creating an actual water delivery during this period of 14,100 acre-feet. The result: this a deficit of 9,200 acre-feet over this 29-day period was added to New Mexico’s 2025 debit. Roughly 40 percent of the water that should have reached the reservoir disappeared within the Middle Valley.
Some unknown combination of Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District diversions, increased groundwater pumping that induces recharge from the river, and the poor water-conveyance condition of the river channel upstream from and into the nearly dry Elephant Butte Reservoir absorbed or intercepted much of the flow. This is why so little of the high flows reached Elephant Butte, leaving New Mexico much worse off with regard to its Compact obligations.
Why I’m Tracking Deliveries Monthly
The Water Advocates for several years has urged the Interstate Stream Commission staff to begin paying public attention to water deliveries through the Middle Rio Grande each month and forecasting the year-end results. Sure there are uncertainties and unknowns, but both tracking intra-year progress and forecasting the year-end results are an essential first step to recognizing and managing this serious problem.
The State can’t manage what the State doesn’t measure—and that includes contemporaneous annual compliance as a year progresses. Water delivery debt has grown significantly during 2025, without any Interstate Stream Commission acknowledgement of that fact. Both the facts and state agency silence should alarm the Legislature and the public.
My independent review of this year’s Compact deliveries began this summer. I requested data at the end of each recent month from the Bureau of Reclamation’s engineer who operates the official Rio Grande water accounting model. Last month he discovered a problem with the initial condition for the 2025 accounting. We both made bad estimates because Reclamation’s Elephant Butte Reservoir instrumentation, which measures the reservoir’s water-surface elevation and determines its storage volume, became stuck. I misunderstood how the model accounts for federal storage of New Mexico water in Rio Chama reservoirs to ensure the six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos’ Prior and Paramount water rights have a full supply. The release of unused prior and paramount water between now and the end of the year should materially improve net Compact deliveries over the remainder of the year because it was properly accounted when it was stored.
The Outlook
I project the year will end with an annual 2025 Middle Rio Grande water-delivery debt of about 26,000 acre-feet and an accrued water debt of about 150,000 acre-feet. If so, that may give us two years to avoid a Compact violation rather than only one. We must use this time to stop and reverse the current trend, prevent the violation that continued inaction will cause, and begin working our way out of Compact debt. Any accrued water debt above about 50,000 acre-feet effectively prevents Middle Rio Grande water from being stored upstream in Rio Chama reservoirs.
A public agency can’t deal with a complex problem that impacts the public unless and until the agency names the problem and describes it. A problem can’t be managed if progress toward the desired outcome is not measured. The State Engineer’s job is to comply with the Compact. The ISC’s job is to gather accurate information, professional analysis, and make it publicly available. Both have the duty to communicate openly and promptly.
I speculate this crisis is getting the silent treatment by both state agencies because they don’t have the Governor’s consent to confront it. Dealing with this compact emergency is not in the Governor’s 50-Year Water Action Plan. Neither is water planning. If we have to wait for a new Governor to attend to New Mexico’s water emergency, it may not be in time to prevent a brand new Texas v. New Mexico case before the US Supreme Court. Failing to take serious action now is another step toward the huge risks and costs of the litigation that will follow a violation. That’s a poor legacy for everyone involved.
New Mexico needs transparent water management to prevent the looming Compact violation. It needs funding. It needs it now.
We’re Asking the Governor & Legislature to Fund State Water Agencies to Secure A Better Water Future
Senator Liz Stefanics, Chair of both the Legislature’s Water and Natural Resources Committee and the Senate Conservation Committee, asked water advocates to identify financial resources needed to confront New Mexico’s deepening water crisis. The New Mexico Water Advocates responded with three essential programs: Rio GrandeCompact Compliance, Water Data infrastructure, and Regional Water Security Planning.
These are not long-term wish-list items. They were recommended specifically by the 2022 New Mexico Water Policy and Infrastructure Task Force. They are well-vetted and justified emergency responses to New Mexico’s water crisis that is already destabilizing communities and ecosystems and threatening our economy. New Mexico is over-using its renewable water supplies while climate heating drives aridification and the decline of both groundwater and surface water resources. The State must improve its ability to comply with the Rio Grande Compact, to track and manage actual water use, and to plan realistically for a more resilient water future that is now in jeopardy.
These three programs are designed to meet the crisis and bring it under control. Together they build the State’s essential capacity to enforce water rights, meet New Mexico’s Rio Grande Compact obligations, generate and share reliable water data, and empower regional planning councils to act on that information. Only the State of New Mexico, through its agencies and technical institutions, has the authority and responsibility to do these essential jobs. With adequate funding to begin multi-year efforts this session, the State can start stabilizing the crisis and lay the foundation for science-based, transparent, and durable water governance. Without funding, New Mexico will remain in emergency mode—reacting to shortages, assuming the enormous risk and costs that a compact violation unleashes, and defending against new Texas litigation—instead of preventing or managing to mitigate them.
Rio Grande Compact Accrued Debit/Credit History
1) Rio Grande Compact Compliance
New Mexico must meet its delivery obligations to Texas and the United States while protecting communities and ecosystems in the Middle Rio Grande. We recommend:
$10 million (one-time) to the Office of the State Engineer (OSE) to implement the Lower Rio Grande settlement and prevent a new Rio Grande Compact violation due to Middle Rio Grande water overuse. At the current trend, we have only two years and perhaps only one to prevent new Texas v. New Mexico litigation. An emergency clause is needed to provide funding as early in 2026 as possible.
$1 million (recurring) for enforcement capacity—staff, office space, vehicles, and equipment—so the OSE can enforce Lower and Middle Rio Grande water rights.
Pass the Water Rights Enforcement bill, the 2025 measure to modernize an outdated statute that stalled on the Senate floor awaiting a final vote. The State Engineer needs workable administrative enforcement authority to stop illegal water uses without having to sue the user.
Why it matters: The Lower Rio Grande settlement requires New Mexico’s detailed plan in two years to substantially reduce Lower Rio Grande water use and full compliance in 10 years. At the present trend, Middle Rio Grande illegal water overuse will cause a compact violation in two years.
2) Water Data to Support Planning & Management
New Mexico’s water decisions are only as good as the data behind them. We recommend:
$7 million (one-time) to the OSE to replace the outdated water-rights database and application, build a real-time water-use database and application, and implement a modern management information system.
$3 million (one-time) to NM Tech for the Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources (NMBGMR) to contract with Water Data Act directing agencies to publish priority datasets to the state water data catalogue. These datasets will be selected in consultation with the Interstate Stream Commission (ISC) to help ensure regional water planning councils have the best available science, data, and models.
$21.5 million (one-time) to NM Tech for NMBGMR to accelerate the statewide Aquifer Mapping Program—geophysics, new characterization and monitoring wells, and term staff—to illuminate where, how fast, and why groundwater conditions are changing.
Why it matters: You cannot manage what you don’t measure. These investments give local water managers, planners, and the public the transparent, timely information demanded by aridification, warming, and overuse.
3) Regional Water Security Planning
To make the Water Security Planning Act work on the ground, regions must organize credible councils and set pragmatic work plans. We recommend:
$4.8 million (one-time) to the OSE for the ISC to make grants to nine regional entities to stand up councils and develop work plans for Commission approval. The appropriation includes 6% for ISC administrative costs at $300,000.
Why it matters: Durable solutions are local and data driven. Funding regional councils to organize and plan with the best data available creates a transparent path from facts to decisions.
Bottom line: New Mexico is overusing declining renewable water supplies in a warming climate. The responsible fix is not slogans or one-off projects. It is steady, statewide capacity in water law enforcement, water data, aquifer science, and regional planning. Please urge your legislators to fund these requests and pass the enforcement bill this session. It’s the most cost-effective way to protect communities, economies, and rivers—not just this year, but for decades.
Our state is facing a catastrophic water crisis and is currently failing to meet a critical legal obligation. Under the Rio Grande Compact, New Mexico is required to deliver sufficient water downstream to the Elephant Butte Reservoir for users in southern New Mexico and Texas. New Mexico is NOT meeting this obligation.
The Crisis at a Glance
If we continue to fail to meet our water deliveries, we will likely find ourselves in another expensive lawsuit with potentially dire financial and water management consequences. The latest data reveals that New Mexico’s cumulative water delivery debt to Elephant Butte Reservoir has reached 167,600 acre-feet as of September 2025—perilously close to the Compact’s 200,000 acre-foot legal limit. Over the past decade and a half, we have averaged 20,000 acre feet under-delivery. We are operating on borrowed time and borrowed water and rapidly running out of the Compact’s allowed “breathing room.”
The root of this problem is clear: systemic overuse and a lack of decisive water rights enforcement, particularly concerning unregulated groundwater pumping in the Middle Rio Grande that impacts river flows.
We cannot afford to wait for a lawsuit to force action. Our legislators and water managers must demonstrate courage and act now while they still have options.
What You Must Do: A Call to Protect New Mexico’s Water
1. Read and Share the Facts
Understand the urgency by reviewing the details presented by experts and advocates.
Understand Corporate Thirst: The Compact debt is driven by systemic illegal uses and overuse, but it is worsened by impending corporate demands. Learn about the controversial deals that would further drain our state’s limited supply. Watch our September Workshop “Niagara’s Water Rights Transfer: Bad for New Mexico” and register for our October workshop “The Rio Grande Reckoning: Data Centers, Debt, and the Compact Crisis.”
Share the warning with your friends, family, and community networks to raise awareness about the immediate threat. We all need to understand that water is not just a utility; it is the foundation of New Mexico’s culture, economy, and survival.
2. Contact Your Representatives and Officials
The time for action is now. Your voice must demand that our leaders recognize this as an immediate crisis requiring action, not a political problem to be kicked down the road.
📞 Contact your State Legislator and the Office of the State Engineer and demand they take immediate, concrete steps to lessen the risk of violating the Compact:
Enforce Water Rights: Ask Legislators to improve the State Engineer’s authority to enforce illegal and overuse of our water.
Require Water Metering: Ask the State Engineer to immediately require metering in the Middle Rio Grande.
And request the funding needed:
Fund the Future: Demand that the 2026 Legislature fully fund and require the decisive implementation of the 2023 Water Security Planning Act.
Modernize Agencies: Push for the funding and modernization necessary for water agencies to finally enforce existing laws and collect accurate water data.
➡️ Find your legislator here, noting their legislative aide and contact information, and please see our talking points and sample letter to call or write your legislator and contact the office of the State Engineer.
As you leave this page, we ask you to pause and consider what water means to you. What does this precious natural resource mean to your family, your heritage, or your daily life? Now, take that deep, personal conviction and commitment to the future of our state and carry it into every conversation you have on this crisis. Your voice and your personal story are the most powerful tools we have in this fight for New Mexico’s water security.
Middle Rio Grande Compact Deliveries & Water Delivery Debt
New Mexico’s water situation is deteriorating; under the Rio Grande Compact, NM is accruing historic water delivery debt. This reveals a clear leadership failure in protecting New Mexico’s water.
As would be expected with a dry Rio Grande riverbed aggravated by uncontrolled diversions and groundwater pumping, the September compact compliance news is bad. According to the Bureau of Reclamation’s water accounting model, New Mexico’s water delivery arrears increased to -52,100 acre-feet as of midnight on September 29. Reclamation can’t provide the end of September figures because the federal government is shut down.
Projection of Future Water Delivery Debt
Unless we experience a weather miracle, namely the remnants of a hurricane crossing the Middle Rio Grande, I estimate that by the end of 2025, cumulative water delivery debt will be about -165,000 acre-feet. New Mexico’s increasing debt trend will look like this.
My experience as Interstate Stream Commission Director (1997-2002) and “engineer advisor” to the New Mexico Commissioner, Rio Grande Compact Commission and my license as a retired water resources engineer qualify me to publish this projection. Time will tell if it is accurate.
The Urgent Need for Courage & Transparency
The Interstate Stream Commission Director’s September 18 staff report cites only the official compact debt as of January 1, 2025:
Rio Grande Compact Status – New Mexico’s cumulative Compact debit status is 124,000 acre-feet and Article VII restrictions continue to be in effect.
Nothing was said at the Commission’s September 18 public meeting about the Water and Natural Resources Committee’s September 12th meeting. Legislators charged that New Mexico water agencies lack courage and urgency to confront the imminent new new compact violation and prevent it.
Preventing this imminent new Rio Grande Compact violation requires the leaders of these agencies to tell us the transparent truth. No major New Mexico water problem can be solved until it is publicly named and described.
The legislature recognizes that the adjudication process is slow, the need for water administration is urgent, compliance with interstate compacts is imperative and the state engineer has authority to administer water allocations in accordance with the water right priorities recorded with or declared or otherwise available to the state engineer.
The state engineer shall adopt rules for priority administration to ensure that authority is exercised.
This law and the associated regulations were written to manage the illegal overuse of water Lower and Middle Rio Grande. The New Mexico Supreme Court in 2012 unanimously upheld the regulations. Successive State Engineers have not upheld this law or invoked these regulations.
Budget Battles: Legislature vs. Water Protection
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham requested $500,000 annually from the 2025 Legislature to enforce Middle Rio Grande water rights and confront the Middle Rio Grande water overuse problem. The House Appropriations and Finance Committee under Chairman Nathan Small’s leadership refused to include that request in the budget, instead choosing to direct millions of dollars to oilfield produced water and brackish water treatment. That decision shows legislators who rightfully criticized and mocked both agencies lack of urgency are collectively guilty of the same failures.
Legislative leaders and state budget appropriators: where is your leadership to protect New Mexico’s water?
New Mexico’s problem isn’t so much that some people take too much, although that’s a problem, too. It’s that all surface and groundwater uses together exceed with nature deplete more river water than the Middle Rio Grande’s legal share. Every extra diversion comes out of the water owed downstream. If we keep doing that, the question of how to get the Lower Rio Grande it’s entitled share to Elephant Butte will no longer be ours to decide. The U.S. Supreme Court will decide for us, with absolute discretion. They would order whatever it takes, even turning the Rio Grande into a controlled delivery canal like downstream.
That’s why it matters. That’s why we must eliminate Middle Rio Grande depletions of water owned downstream and work our way out of compact debt.
The Rio Grande Compact is a perfect barrier protecting the Middle Rio Grande from downstream users demands, but only if New Mexico complies.
Energetic Water Discussion in Taos at the NM Legislature’s interim Water & Natural Resources Committee
Elephant Butte Reservoir is 4% full; bathtub rings are evidence of a crisis NM is failing to address, N Gaume photo 8/27/25
Evidence of Overuse & Looming Compact Violations
The Water & Natural Resources Committee considered Middle and Lower Rio Grande overuse and Compact compliance together as one issue.
Legislators’ discussion began with a five-member Water Security Planning Act panel including ISC Director Hannah Riseley-White, former State Engineer Mike Hamman, Jicarilla Apache Tribe water manager Daryl Vigil, New Mexico Acequia Association Policy Director Vidal Gonzales, and me, a former ISC Director and Water Advocates president. I went last.
The Water Security Planning Act should be implemented to meet its potential as a powerful water resources management problem-solving tool, and
Three priorities require legislative action:
Implement the 2023 Water Security Planning Act.
Modernize the Office of the State Engineer and the Interstate Stream Commission. including their compliance with their 2019 Water Data Act responsibilities.
Enforce water rights by changing the law and funding staff to make enforcement practical and effective.
Elephant Butte Reservoir once-drowned resort foundations and the marina, 4% full, N Gaume photo 8/27/25
Camping on the normally wet, upstream side of Elephant Butte Dam when the reservoir is 4% full, N Gaume photo 8/27/25
Legislators recognize Lower and Middle Rio Grande water overuse and compact compliance are one problem
Legislators’ were engaged. Many still had not spoken when Chair Sen. Liz Stefanics decided to postpone the next panel. She said, “See, we are paying attention to water.” Several legislators directly referred to the Water Advocates handout or the compact compliance graphic while asking questions.
The Lower Rio Grande’s overuse problem in litigation since 2013 reaches a settlement
State Engineer Elizabeth Anderson, her office’s chief counsel Nat Chakares, ISC Director Hannah Riseley-White, and Chief Deputy Attorney General James Grayson presented a clear summary explanation of the Lower Rio Grande compact settlement with Texas, the U.S. Department of Justice, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the New Mexico and Texas irrigation districts.
All officials praised the settlement as the best New Mexico could have done.
In my educated opinion, by the time this is over the taxpayers cost for the litigation and the settlement will be at or over $500,000,000.
It’s one big problem
The legislators’ questions and discussion then refocused on Middle Rio Grande and Lower Rio Grande overuse. They again discussed it as a single problem — an alarm that is growing, uncontained, and far from a solution.
Courage
Sen. Joseph Cervantes, D-Dona Ana, made two strong points. A legislator for 25 years, he is a Las Cruces litigator from a long-established family that owns extensive pecan orchards. He bluntly pinpointed the missing ingredient: Courage.
Later, he mocked the Office of the State Engineer for “planning” a well-metering order for the Middle Rio Grande and “planning” to begin the Middle Rio Grande water rights adjudication. Paraphrasing, He said it was ‘much too little, way too late.’
Yes, but still better than nothing, as the State Engineer’s 2004 shortage-administration rules already have the full backing of the New Mexico Supreme Court (2012). The metering order is one of several initial steps. The water agency executives should be motivated to take those steps very soon.
Urgency
Rep. Matthew McQueen, the Committee vice-chair, asked ISC Director Riseley-White two direct questions about what the ISC is doing to prevent the new compact violation, referring to the trend graphic in the Water Advocates handout. He concluded, saying he was dissatisfied with her lack of urgency.
Authority and Accountability
To be clear, the Office of the State Engineer has the power to stop the overuse, but has not yet taken any overt, public action. The ISC has the responsibility to know the facts and communicate the risk and urgency, and spend money to maintain the river channel. Neither the ISC Director, staff, nor any commissioner publicly recognized any urgency at the Commission’s September public meeting.
The Legislature’s existing accountability metric for Rio Grande Compact compliance should also hold the Office of the State Engineer accountable, not just the ISC. That’s because by law, the State Engineer has the specific responsibility and authority to prevent the Compact violation. The ISC’s purpose with broad authority includes “to protect and to do any and all other things necessary to protect” New Mexico’s water.
Courageous Actions Required
To New Mexico State Engineer Elizabeth Anderson: Please act decisively to prevent the looming Compact violation. It is past time for your office to speak openly about the risks we face — and what your office and others in authority must do to keep the Middle Rio Grande’s water future out of the U.S. Supreme Court.
We wish you Courage and Godspeed.
To Governor Lujan Grisham: Your executive direction to the State Engineer is needed: “do any and all things that are necessary” and within your authority to prevent this new violation of the Rio Grande Compact. Call for the Special Session to pass the 2025 water rights enforcement bill that you recommended by died before its final vote on the Senate floor.
Reference Section 72-2-9.1.A quoted below. This water law passed in 2003 and was upheld by the New Mexico Supreme Court in 2012:
A. The legislature recognizes that the adjudication process is slow, the need for water administration is urgent, compliancewithinterstate compacts is imperative and the state engineer has authority to administer water allocations in accordance with the water right priorities recorded with or declared or otherwise available to the state engineer.
To the NM Legislature: Provide New Mexico’s water resources management agencies with the resources and capacity they require to do their jobs to protect New Mexico’s water resources. Pass the 2025 enforcement bill.
To the public: Demand officials take emergency actions to prevent New Mexico’s new violation of the Rio Grande Compact next year that will place the Middle Rio Grande’s water future in the unfettered and unappealable discretion of the U. S. Supreme Court.
Interested members of the public should know:
The Rio Grande Compact shields the Middle Rio Grande from downstream demands, but only as long as New Mexico stays in compliance.
Since 2018, New Mexico’s annual overuse has averaged about 22,200 acre-feet — small compared to average Rio Grande inflows of more than 750,000 acre-feet per year.
Groundwater pumping undermines the river’s flow.
Coming Soon
Articles describing,
The looming risk: If New Mexico fails to prevent a new Rio Grande Compact violation, the State’s neglect will impose severe risks on the State and Middle Rio Grande residents. The article will describe why and how the Compact violation risks our river and our lifestyles.
Polycentric water governance: Effective stewardship requires state government, local governments, and the special districts that supply water to share authority and responsibility. Only by working together can we manage common water supplies to meet today’s needs and secure water for future generations of New Mexicans.
A Bureau of Reclamation hydrologic engineer promptly responded to my request for updated Rio Grande Compact accounting data through August 2025. Based on that information and my analysis, the Middle Rio Grande’s 2025 water delivery shortfall is alarmingly large. Summer rains wet the land but not the river, leaving New Mexico much closer to serious legal jeopardy.
167,600 Acre-Feet Cumulative Water Delivery Debt At August’s End
As the chart illustrates, New Mexico accumulated a 167,600 acre-foot water delivery debt under the Rio Grande Compact as of the end of August 2025. That includes:
43,600 acre-feet of underdelivery during 2025 (so far), and
124,000 acre-feet of accumulated shortfall between 2018 and 2025, as agreed by the Rio Grande Compact Commission.
The Compact sets a legal maximum debit of 200,000 acre-feet.
Federal Water Storage for Pueblos
To support the six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos’ “prior and paramount” rights to water, federal agencies stored as much native Rio Chama water as possible earlier this year in El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs. While about 3,800 acre-feet has been released to date, over 26,000 acre-feet remains stored. Reclamation traditionally releases the remaining stored water in December for delivery to Elephant Butte Reservoir.
The heat of summer and accelerated groundwater pumping are causing extreme losses of the river’s flow to seepage and evaporation. The shallow groundwater under the riverbed must be recharged before the river can deliver water to Elephant Butte. How much water will actually reach Elephant Butte by the end of this year? No one knows.
My educated guess: New Mexico will end 2025 with a cumulative delivery debt of roughly 160,000 acre-feet—perilously close to the legal limit.
Restored Compact Credit Breathing Room Is Now Gone
New Mexico reached agreement with Texas and Colorado in 2021 to restore 32,400 acre-feet of Compact credit. This resolved a long-standing dispute stemming from Reclamation’s 2011 illegal taking of New Mexico’s credit water.
Without that restored credit, New Mexico’s delivery debt as of August 31 would be equal to the 200,000 acre-foot legal cap. [124,000 + 43,600 + 32,400 = 200,000]
Official Action Delayed?
Nat Chakeres is the top lawyer for New Mexico’s top water official, the New Mexico State Engineer. In his excellent May 2025 Water Advocates workshop presentation, he said the State Engineer planned to begin official regulatory action soon, including a Middle Rio Grande metering order and warning letters to the Middle Rio Grande’s largest groundwater pumpers. If those actions have occurred, they have not been made public.
Bandwidth is a likely reason: the extreme workload and pressures of finalizing and filing the incredibly complex Lower Rio Grande litigation settlement documents and preparing for trials yet to come. The Special Master’s deadline was August 29; the Special Master will preside over a trial later this year. That trial will lead to the Special Master’s decision to forward the settlement to the SCOTUS. The Justices will decide after their 2026 trial.
Meanwhile, the Middle Rio Grande is squarely on the path to a new Compact violation and Texas complaint. As in the Lower Rio Grande, unregulated groundwater pumping is a major cause.
The Middle Rio Grande’s 2025 River Water Supply Has Collapsed
A Sobering Conversation
On Friday, August 1, a kind and knowledgeable hydrologist at the Bureau of Reclamation’s Albuquerque office responded to my questions about the Middle Rio Grande’s river water supply and our year-to-date Compact deliveries to Elephant Butte. The answers were sobering.
The Future Has Arrived Early
It’s time to stop talking about New Mexico’s projected 25% reduction in renewable surface and groundwater supply by 2070. That number, from the widely cited 2021 report by the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, now understates our crisis. The 2025 shortfall in river water supply is more than 50%.
The riverbed through metro Albuquerque is dry. The Bureau of Reclamation’s San Juan–Chama Project, which imports water from the Colorado River Basin, hit a record-low allocation in 2025. This year’s water for project contractors is down 69% from a full supply. That’s a massive shortfall for the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, which receives about half the water, and the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District , which receives about a quarter.
Data show the decline in river flows over the last 50 years, as illustrated in the chart below that I prepared in early June. The drone photo below the chart shows the river channel at the US380 highway bridge near San Antonio in August 2022, a relatively dry year. The river there had water then and the fields are green. This year, the fields may be green but due to rain and groundwater pumping. The river is dry.
Rio Grande at US380 Bridge near San Antonio NM, August 2022. Credit: The Water Desk. c Mitch Tobin
Compact Risk Is Flashing Red
At the May 15 Water Advocates workshop*, State Engineer General Counsel Nat Chakeres stated his belief that the Middle Rio Grande would avoid a Rio Grande Compact violation this year because the water delivery obligation to Elephant Butte is so low. I concur.
But unless the unusual 2025 monsoon delivers a lot more water across the dry watersheds to the river, the Middle Rio Grande’s accrued water delivery debt will rise to roughly 160,000 acre-feet—using up half of New Mexico’s remaining margin. That margin is our buffer before high-stakes interstate litigation returns.
If we exceed the 200,000 acre-foot legal cap on cumulative water delivery debt, we will once again face Texas in the U.S. Supreme Court—this time in another risky, high stakes case that will cost over $100 million and a decade or more to defend. The still ongoing 2013 lawsuit filed by Texas and joined by the United States over New Mexico groundwater pumping in the Lower Rio Grande cost more and is taking longer.
Texas’ formal attempt to bring Middle Rio Grande under deliveries into the ongoing Lower Rio Grande litigation failed, because we remain in compliance, that is, our water delivery debt doesn’t exceed the cap. The Compact creates a clear dividing line that isolates the Middle Rio Grande from the Lower Rio Grande, but only as long as the Middle Rio Grande remains in compliance.
What Must Be Done
We must acknowledge that our renewable water supply is shrinking now—not decades from now. And we must act accordingly. Either we take strong action to comply with the Compact, or we will be forced to devote our state’s water agencies to the enormous task of defending a new Supreme Court case—this time involving water for half of New Mexico’s economy and population. And we will be forced to comply, but with less leeway and discretion.
*Visit the “Past Events” tab at nmwateradvocates.org to access the May 15 workshop recording and slides.
Technical Notes:
This U.S Geological Survey Chart
The light blue trace in the chart below is from the U. S. Geological Survey’s river streamflow gage at the Otowi Bridge on the Los Alamos highway. It measures Rio Grande Compact inflows to the Middle Rio Grande. San Juan-Chama water volumes are subtracted from the gage reading, which is also adjusted for changes in upstream reservoir native water storage.
The green trace measures the outflow from the Middle Rio Grande at the Narrows within Elephant Butte Reservoir, where the river is flowing in an accessible channel many miles upstream of where the stored water pool has retreated. This is a temporary gage and is useful. The Rio Grande Compact actual water delivery is calculated as the change in storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir plus the release through Elephant Butte Dam.
The dark blue trace shows the flow of the Rio Grande downstream from the Rio Pueblo de Taos. It measures Colorado’s stateline deliveries, tributary inflows and the flows including the Red River and the Rio Pueblo de Taos, and large springs in the upper Rio Grande Gorge. Most of the additional water measured at the Otowi gage (light blue) comes from the Rio Chama, the Rio Embudo, and inflows minus diversions upstream from Espanola.
Comparison of the light blue and green traces shows very little of the inflow to the Middle Rio Grande has made it through. The compact requirement is 57% on an annual basis.
Current Data from Reclamation
Reclamation’s hydrologist said the Otowi gage flows include delivery of 33,884 acre-feet of San Juan-Chama project water in 2025 year-to-date. MRGCD has used essentially all of its allocation.
Federal agencies stored 32,668 acre-feet of native Rio Grande water under conditions when the Compact does not permit storage to guarantee water to meet the “prior and paramount” irrigation requirements for certain Pueblo lands. Of that total, 2,100 acre-feet has been released as of the end of July. The current rate of release is 40 cfs. It has been as high as 60 cfs. All remaining water will be released for delivery to Elephant Butte after the end of the irrigation season. Ir’s rare that prior and paramount water is used because normally the minimum flow of the river is enough. A substantial amount may remain, or not, depending on the monsoon.
The Upper Rio Grande Water Accounting Model shows the Middle Rio Grande’s year-to-date underdelivery of water to Elephant Butte as of the end of July is – 39,000 acre-feet.
The Middle Rio Grande Uses Much More Than Its Share
Water flowing down the Rio Grande that is legally owned by and destined for Lower Rio Grande water users is being intercepted and consumed in the Middle Rio Grande.
In 2025 through May, the Middle Rio Grande was entitled to 43% of the 239,900 acre-feet this year’s native Rio Grande water supply, as measured at the Otowi Bridge gage—adjusted for upstream storage changes and San Juan-Chama imported water. The Middle Rio Grande consumed much more, including 38,400 acre-feet of the Lower Rio Grande’s water. The Lower Rio Grande is entitled to 57%. It got 39%.
The Middle Rio Grande’s spiraling water debt is out-of-control. New Mexico is on track to violate the compact soon. Texas undoubtedly will sue.
Nat Chakeres, General Counsel for the Office of the State Engineer, described this problem in his excellent presentation at the Water Advocates May 15th workshop. He described preparations underway for the State Engineer’s forthcoming Middle Rio Grande regulatory actions to be announced soon. Nat answered a question saying he didn’t think 2025 deliveries would fall short by more than 76,000 acre-feet—the remaining margin before an outright violation of the Rio Grande Compact. When asked for supporting data, he deferred to the Interstate Stream Commission. My calculations show the Middle Rio Grande has burned through half of that remaining margin as of the end of May.
Nat’s presentation was one of the best: extremely well organized, clearly presented, frankly informative, and very timely. He clearly explained the water the Rio Grande Compact provides to the Middle Rio Grande and what it requires. He traced the shift from the Middle Valley’s small delivery credit in 2018 to a growing water debt that reached 124,000 acre-feet by the end of 2024. He emphasized the urgent need to significantly reduce total depletions from the river. “If the next seven years look like the last seven,” Nat warned, “it will be too late.”
Unless we act now—with enforceable limits—New Mexico could face Compact violation and a loss of control over our water future.
We agree—and we believe it may already be too late. Regardless, it’s much better for the State Engineer as New Mexico’s water regulator to begin strong, appropriate actions in 2025 than to by default cede authority and control to the judiciary.
So, how are we doing this year? As a former ISC Director, I know where to find the data and do the compact math. Think of the following as my best estimate, that of an observer rather than an insider with access to the best data and current information. I’m putting forward my estimates with those caveats, transparently.
In recent years, the total of all Middle Rio Grande water uses has consumed much more water from the Rio Grande than is ours. 2025 continues the spiral. There is no effective state regulation or self-regulation by institutional water users to protect the water commons. Groundwater pumpers are not suffering a shortage and have increased pumping to offset lack of surface water and increased demand. That pumping causes increased river seepage losses and consumes stored groundwater.
The facts of 2025 per my calculations summarized below are alarming.
Otowi Bridge Gage Volume to Date: 227,500 acre-feet of water have flowed past the USGS Otowi Bridge gage through May 31, per my calculation based on 15-minute gage readings over the first 151 days of 2025. Some measurements are missing but use of averages is adequate for this preliminary estimate.
The 227,500 acre-foot total winter and spring runoff volume is very low. No snowpack remains, in the Colorado or New Mexico Rio Grande headwaters.
Otowi Index Flow: The total volume flowing past the Otowi Bridge gage is adjusted to determine the amount of native Rio Grande water subject to the compact’s sharing requirements. To calculate the index, subtract 20,000 acre-feet of San Juan-Chama Project water and add 32,400 acre-feet of native water federal agencies stored for the pueblos. The total volume to date this year that must be divided between the Middle and Lower Rio Grande is 239,900 acre-feet.
Delivery Requirement: Of that adjusted total, 57%, or 136,700 acre-feet, is legally allocated to users downstream from Elephant Butte Dam.
Actual Delivery: Based on Elephant Butte Reservoir storage and release data, 99,300 acre-feet have arrived—net of all uses and losses between Otowi and the dam, meaning after accounting for diversions, evaporation, and seepage and unknown losses and errors. This is a 39% delivery, must less than the 57% required.
Cumulative Deficit: The Middle Rio Grande is entitled to 43%, or 103,200 acre-feet. Middle Rio Grande overuse this year to date is 37,400 acre-feet, increasing the cumulative water debt to -161,400 acre-feet.
From a slight credit in 2018 to a deficit of -161,400 acre-feet in May 2025—our water debt has quickly grown out of control.
Figure 1. The Middle Rio Grande’s Plunge Into Compact Water Delivery Debt
Unless we have a strong monsoon, 2025 will push the Middle Valley even deeper into water delivery debt. If the monsoon is weak, none of the water stored upstream for the pueblos’ indigenous rights is likely to be delivered. Little to none of the steady summer low flows expected at Otowi will make it through the Middle Rio Grande. For much of the summer, the riverbed below Albuquerque will be dry—and when flow resumes, rewetting the channel will consume large volumes of water that will not count toward deliveries.
No emergency declared. No plan. No accountability. Most Middle Rio Grande residents remain unaware of the stakes.
Here we are once again doing little, saying less. The House Appropriations and Finance Committee stripped without comment the Governor’s request to increase the State Engineer’s annual budget $500,000 for staff, office space, and expenses for the agency to address the Compact delivery crisis. No public emergency is declared. No action plan has emerged. Reporting is sparse with unheeded exceptions. Most Middle Rio Grande residents remain unaware of the stakes.
The Water Advocates commends General Counsel Nat Chakeres and State Engineer Liz Anderson for their transparency in the General Counsel’s announcement in a public forum that significant policy changes are coming soon, including notices to all large water users, a metering order for all large wells, and the initiation of the Middle Rio Grande adjudication. We appreciate his frank evaluation of our basic alternatives, contrasting the benefits of negotiated agreements with fighting it out first in court only to be forced to settle or having an adverse judicial order imposed. As he put it, there are water uses that are not going away.
We need more, much more, than Nat’s introduction to forthcoming policy changes. If we do not act now—with transparency, accountability, and enforceable limits—New Mexico could face Compact violation, new United States Supreme Court litigation with Texas, and a potentially devastating loss of control over our own water future. Compliance is the barrier against all of that.
Regardless, I urge New Mexico’s two state water resources agencies to become more transparent; They must name, describe, and quantify our vexing water overuse problems. That is the first step toward solving them.
Norm Gaume, P.E. (ret.)
President, New Mexico Water Advocates
A Glossary of Terms for Middle Rio Grande Water Management is available here.
As a retired professional engineer, I have used care in completing these calculations, but they rely on incomplete information and have been checked only by me. I stand by my conclusions even though I want to make it clear the specific numbers are preliminary and my calculations are simplified. Therefore, I do not warrant the numbers I calculated from provisional and unpublished agency data. If my numbers are incorrect, I hope the ISC will let me know and provide their professional estimates, as referenced by Nat.
New Mexico is not confronting a legal and water management crisis in the Middle Rio Grande. Public conversations are missing, including at the 2025 Legislature. The central question:
What actions are being taken—or not taken—to change our trajectory toward violating the Rio Grande Compact due to chronic annual depletion in the Middle Rio Grande of large volumes of the Lower Rio Grande’s water?
Nine interrelated facts together define this perilous situation—one that remains largely unacknowledged and without an adequate response.
1. 2025 is shaping up to be a record-dry year.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s February Annual Operating Plan projects dry river conditions across the Middle Rio Grande from May through August. Hydrographs show stretches of the river drying for months. “Central” refers to the gage at the Central Ave bridge in Albuquerque. San Acacia Floodway refers to the flow in the river downstream from the San Acacia diversion dam located north of Socorro.
2. Snowpack collapse is historic.
The Rio Chama snowpack recently has set record daily lows: zero percentile snow water equivalent!
Rio Grande Colorado headwaters: 5th percentile.
The Upper Rio Grande snowpack in New Mexico: 4th percentile.
Upper San Juan: 5th percentile
2025 San Juan–Chama Project deliveries in 2025 at record low: projected to be 46% of the 1990s “firm yield” used in regional supply planning, including the Albuquerque Water Authority’s 100-year plan.
3. Rio Chama runoff may not meet critical obligations.
At the March 20 ISC meeting, Director Hannah Riseley-White warned that total Rio Chama runoff may not meet the federal storage target for Pueblo prior and paramount water. Federal agencies plan to store record volumes of Rio Chama to ensure the Pueblos’ water supply.
4. Compact compliance requires delivery of 57% of native flow entering the Middle Valley to Elephant Butte.
Flow entering the Middle Valley includes the Rio Chama. If Chama runoff is dedicated to meet the Pueblos’ prior and paramount water rights, is it possible for the State to meet the 57% delivery requirement to Elephant Butte?
5. Compact delivery debt is dangerously high.
Since 2018, the Middle Rio Grande has depleted 155,800 acre-feet of the Lower Rio Grande’s water. As of January 1, 2025, New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande cumulative water delivery debit stands at -124,000 acre-feet. Another 76,000 acre-feet of water debt will violate the Compact. Annual water delivery debts have exceeded 76,000 acre-feet in five of 85 years, historically.
Such a violation is certain to trigger Texas to file a new United States Supreme Court lawsuit, compounding the ongoing Lower Rio Grande litigation and exposing the state and the Middle Rio Grande to legal, economic, and political risk. Half of New Mexico’s population and economy resides in the Middle Rio Grande zone of chronic water overuse—and imminent legal exposure.
6. The State Engineer has issued clear warnings.
A fact sheet prepared for the 2025 Legislature stated:
“A compact violation could trigger curtailment and/or costly litigation that may result in severe and unpredictable shocks to the economy and water supply for agricultural and municipal users in the middle and lower Rio Grande.”
7. The Legislature did not fund prevention efforts.
The 2025 Legislature rejected the Governor’s proposed $500,000 increase for State Engineer compact compliance staff.
8. Enforcement legislation failed again.
For the second year, lawmakers declined to pass legislation that would authorize the State Engineer to take effective administrative enforcement against illegal water use.
9. Active Water Resource Management is missing in action.
Despite the New Mexico Supreme Court’s 2012 unanimous opinion approval upholding the statute and detailed General Rules in 2012, district-specific rules for the Middle Rio Grande have not been adopted.
New State Engineer Liz Anderson may move ahead to ensure compliance with the AWRM law, Section 72-2-9.1 NMSA 1978, which states,
“A. The legislature recognizes that the adjudication process is slow, the need for water administration is urgent, compliance with interstate compacts is imperative and the state engineer has authority to administer water allocations in accordance with the water right priorities recorded with or declared or otherwise available to the state engineer.
B. The state engineer shall adopt rules for priority administration to ensure that authority is exercised: … “
Ask Yourself
Why have New Mexico elected leaders not responded to this preventable crisis?
Do they and we realize we’re enabling or participating in a tragedy of the commons?
Why aren’t we implementing and enforcing the present state water laws designed to prevent that?
Are our decision-makers—and the public—adequately informed?
Ask our leaders and water institutions, besides praying for monsoons, what are we doing?
A Call to Action
The 2025 Legislature is over, but this crisis can’t wait until the Legislature reconvenes in January 2026. Two critical avenues remain.
1. Engage the Legislative Interim Committees
Interim committees shape next year’s legislation. We must:
Urge committee chairs—especially Legislative Finance and Water and Natural Resources—to hold hearings on compact compliance.
Provide clear presentations connecting snowpack and flow data to our legal obligations.
Emphasize the stakes and costs of not confronting the crisis.
Engaging legislators and interim committees is how we build understanding and momentum for action in the 2026 Legislature. Reinstating the compact compliance staff cut from the Governor’s 2025 budget request must be a top priority. The State Engineer cannot meet this challenge without them.
2. Press State Agencies to Act Now
The Interstate Stream Commission and Office of the State Engineer already have:
Statutory authority to confront and manage this crisis,
Clear legal obligations to deliver compact water and enforce priorities, and
Substantial human and budget resources.
They must immediately:
Declare an emergency.
Declare compact compliance a top priority.
Publicly assess delivery risk and publish a response plan.
Communicate and coordinate with all water users to reduce depletions.
Implement the Active Water Resource Management framework now.
These are not new ideas. They are long-standing obligations. What’s missing is action.
We still have a chance to avert this avoidable disaster. The time to act is now.
New Mexico’s water resource management agencies are telling the Legislature that New Mexico faces Middle Rio Grande compact jeopardy and lacks capacity to prevent that jeopardy from becoming a disaster. What jeopardy, you might be thinking? This is how the Office of the State Engineer (OSE) describes it (emphasis in the original):
If hydrology does not improve, and without further action, New Mexico could violate the Rio Grande Compact – an agreement between New Mexico and our neighboring states related to how the waters of the river are shared. A compact violation could trigger curtailment and/or costly litigation that may result in severe and unpredictable shocks to the economy and water supply for agricultural and municipal users in the middle and lower Rio Grande. […]
If depletion reductions are managed in a proactive manner, New Mexicans can retain local control over water management and have certainty about water rights management into the future.
Maintaining New Mexico’s compliance with the Rio Grande Compact requires additional resources now.
What is the Rio Grande Compact and what does it require of the Middle Rio Grande?
The Rio Grande Compact, like other interstate river water allocation compacts in the West, is state law in all the states subject to the compact. It is also federal law. Once signed by the Governors of the states and the President of the United States, following passage by the state legislatures and Congress, an interstate stream compact is binding. It can be changed only by agreement. Interstate water disputes involving compacts are evaluated and enforced by the United States Supreme Court. There is no appeal.
Turmoil erupted along the Rio Grande when Coloradans diverted all the flow they could from the Rio Grande in the 1890s. The river at El Paso was dry. Three decades of interstate disputes were settled by a 1929 federal moratorium on all Rio Grande water development. After a remarkable and intensive federal hydrology investigation, the Rio Grande Compact was negotiated and signed at Bishop’s Lodge in Santa Fe in 1938.
The Rio Grande Compact makes three allocations for water use in New Mexico.
The Upper Rio Grande may continue using as much water as it was, and no more, as an implicit condition of the compact. No formal compact accounting procedure to enforce this provision exists. New Mexico is not in violation because Upper Rio Grande irrigation has declined substantially.
Lower and Middle Rio Grande allocations
New Mexico must deliver water through the Middle Rio Grande for use in the Lower Rio Grande. The compact allocations require a minimum of 57% of the water flowing under the Otowi highway bridge to Los Alamos be delivered for Lower Rio Grande uses. New Mexico’s annual allocation is the other 43%, capped at a maximum of 405,000 acre-feet per year.
For accounting purposes, the Middle Rio Grande inflow is adjusted for net storage change over the year in New Mexico’s reservoirs constructed after the 1929 moratorium.
The graphic below illustrates these allocations. The Middle Rio Grande portion of the annual Otowi inflow volume is the turquoise sliver. The Lower Rio Grande is entitled to 100% of the annual volume that exceeds 1,200,000 acre-feet in one year, the orange wedge. The compact was designed to fill Elephant Butte Reservoir in flood years.
In addition to Otowi gage annual inflow allocation, the Middle Rio Grande is entitled to deplete the annual inflow volume from tributaries entering the Middle Rio Grande plus all San Juan-Chama Project imported water released to San Juan-Chama Project contractors..
The New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission (ISC) oversees the Rio Grande Compact situation for New Mexico and supports the New Mexico Compact Commission, who is always the State Engineer.
Internally within New Mexico, the State Engineer has the legal authority to enforce compact water delivery requirements, but has never done so on one of the state’s major rivers.
The ISC works with representatives of the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado, and Texas to prepare the compact accounting annually for the Rio Grande Compact Commission’s approval. Water deliveries from the Middle Rio Grande for use in the Lower Rio Grande are measured as the change in storage in Elephant Butte Reservoir plus the volume released from Elephant Butte Reservoir during the year. The compact caps the Middle Rio Grande’s allowable cumulative water debt at 200,000 acre-feet
Rio Grande Compact Litigation in the Lower Rio Grande
New Mexicans residing in the Lower Rio Grande are entitled by the compact to deplete 57% of the water released from Elephant Butte Dam but are using more through heavy agricultural and municipal groundwater pumping adjacent to the river. Texas sued New Mexico for a Rio Grande Compact violation in 2012 claiming New Mexico groundwater pumping was taking New Mexico water. The United States intervened on the Texas side and presented its own claims.
Actions by large New Mexico pecan growers who depended on massive groundwater pumping were the trigger. Large growers dominated the Elephant Butte Irrigation District Board. The EBID board gave New Mexico’s Rio Grande water to Texas irrigators to offset the effect of their pumping on the river. The deal between the New Mexico and Texas irrigators included and was implemented by the Bureau of Reclamation. They completely bypassed the State of New Mexico. The pecan grower purpose was to pump groundwater to irrigate their permanent crop regardless of surface water shortages. In 2011, New Mexico sued Reclamation in Federal District Court over Reclamation’s lack of authority for its actions. Texas reacted, suing New Mexico the next year in the United States Supreme Court.
The author as ISC Director addressed explicit Texas’ Lower Rio Grande SCOTUS litigation threats from 1997 through 2002, with Texans water agency staff literally pounding on the table in Santa Fe. A year or two later, they cancelled an Austin, Texas, meeting before it was supposed to end, after being confronted by the ISC chair and vice-chair with New Mexico’s counterclaims of Texas, as lawyers say, “dirty hands.”
As an aside, Enron-style charm was a component of the Texas effort in the late 1990s. Enron hosted a lavish reception at the gated, art-filled compound of a wealthy Santa Fe resident. New Mexico and Texas legislators and agency staff attended. It was pretty clear one purpose was a Santa Fe summer break for Texans. Yes, that Enron.
A settlement to the current Texas and US v. New Mexico SCOTUS litigation over the Lower Rio Grande continues on after 12 years and over $100 million in New Mexico litigation costs. A settlement agreed by the states and accepted by the prior Special Master but not the Court itself, would require NM to reduce groundwater pumping by about 18,000 acre-feet per year. The negotiated settlement didn’t financially penalize New Mexico due to the counterclaims New Mexico developed and proved against both Texas and the United States.
The hang-up to the settlement is the Department of Justice. It objected, saying New Mexico can’t be counted on to do what it commits to and that New Mexico needed to give to Texas water that has long been settled as New Mexico’s. The proposed settlement – agreed between the states but unacceptable to the Department of Justice – adds a new gage at El Paso and a complex new accounting procedure to measure New Mexico’s annual Lower Rio Grande delivery compliance, if the SCOTUS accepts it.
The SCOTUS ordered mediation under a new Special Master, who is a senior, no nonsense federal judge. The second of the current of compelled mediation sessions presided over by the demanding new special master was held in Washington, D.C. February 26-28, 2025. The Special Master set a trial date for June.
SCOTUS litigation, in addition to being extremely costly and risky, is very demanding of the state’s water resources agencies leaders bandwidth. They don’t need another dose. But,
The Middle Rio Grande Water Delivery Debt is Alarming and Growing.
New Mexico’s water delivery debt as of the end of 2023 was 121,500 acre-feet. Despite some cooperative efforts between the state and the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District to reduce the debt in 2024, New Mexico’s preliminary accounting indicates the debt grew slightly to about 123,000 acre-feet. These two graphs illustrate the debt trends and the importance of the litigation credit that New Mexico successfully negotiated with Texas in 2022. The Rio Grande Compact Commission agreed that only New Mexico, and not Reclamation, has the authority to dispose of New Mexico water stored in Elephant Butte.
New Mexico can count on a new Texas SCOTUS lawsuit when the cumulative delivery debt exceeds the 200,000 acre-feet per year limit. We already have seen one version of the Texas complaint, filed when Texas attempted to bring Middle Rio Grande water issues into the Lower Rio Grande litigation.
Relevant History That the Middle Rio Grande Policy- and Decision-Makers Should Understand
New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande compact compliance history has a story to tell. The 1938 compact was barely in existence when two consecutive flood years occurred in 1941 and 1942. Huge floods filled Elephant Butte Reservoir, which overflowed. The floods destroyed the channel of the Rio Grande. Aerial photography of the river below the Bosque del Apache in the late 1940s shows only a sea of salt cedar; no river channel is visible.
Texas sued in the early 1950s. The United States said it was an indispensable party to that lawsuit because of its trust relationship with the Pueblos but refused to participate. Before the lawsuit was dismissed, Reclamation rebuilt the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District and installed the river diversion dams. It still owns them.. Reclamation designed a narrow channel between levees and channelized the Rio Grande in its current position. The channelization, deep drains, and major water salvage infrastructure worked to substantially increase New Mexico’s deliveries to the Lower Rio Grande. Texas dropped the lawsuit and New Mexico came into compliance, which has lasted over 50 years.
.
The 1980s and 1990s were the wettest two decades of the last 1000 years. Elephant Butte Reservoir spilled in 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1995. Now we are in the driest decades of more than 1000 years and Elephant Butte Reservoir is drained.
The fundamental problems are these. Our water supplies are down. Our water demands are up. We are courting new high water use industry. We have a continuous, dense water-loving and publicly treasured riparian forest between levees on both sides of the river that never existed before. Groundwater pumping has expanded. Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District expanded their irrigated acreage on newly developed farmland, which they still are allowed by the Legislature to do.
Half of all New Mexicans live in the Middle Rio Grande, many from rural New Mexico seeking employment. While water is never far from the thoughts of most rural New Mexicans, many of whom hold it sacred as do the Water Advocates, water is a taken-for-granted commodity for most urban dwellers.
We are not facing this problem. The 2025 Legislator has appropriated nothing – That’s Right – Nothing – to deal with it. The saying, “Poor New Mexico, so far from Heaven, so close to Texas,” attributed to New Mexico Governor Manuel Armijo about 1850, seems to fit the situation confronting us with the current budget. The House of Representatives allocated $48 million for brackish water development but zero for proactive efforts to maintain Middle Rio Grande compact compliance. Now it’s up to the Senate.
Active Water Resources Management is the Solution
Fortunately, there is already a fully authorized legal mechanism to curtail overuse and prevent the pending compact violation. A bill passed by the 2003 Legislature authorized a program called Active Water Resources Management. The law, Section 72-2-9.1 NMSA 1978, granted new authority to the State Engineer. It says, in part,
The legislature recognizes that the adjudication process is slow, the need for water administration is urgent, compliance with interstate compacts is imperative and the state engineer has authority to administer water allocations in accordance with the water right priorities recorded with or declared or otherwise available to the state engineer. The state engineer shall adopt rules for priority administration to ensure that authority is exercised: (1) so as not to interfere with a future or pending adjudication; (2) so as to create no impairment of water rights, other than what is required to enforce priorities; and (3) so as to create no increased depletions.
The Office of the State Engineer issued General Rules to implement this new authority in 2004. The New Mexico Supreme Court unanimously upheld the rules in 2012.
The AWRM program was designed for the Rio Grande. It is the law. AWRM will prioritize water rights to protect senior users, essential domestic uses regardless of priority, require accurate measurements of groundwater pumping, and enforce reductions by junior water rights owners. Creation of a water bank so that water can be accessed by otherwise curtailed junior users is a requirement. The water bank will allow otherwise curtailed junior water rights holders to lease water from senior water right owners who in exchange for money will make their water available, reducing conflict and encouraging conservation. It’s complex but essential.
The Deputy State Engineer and the OSE General Counsel presented an informative workshop describing the “carrots and sticks” of compact compliance in May 2024. The video recording is available under “Past Events” at nmwateradvocates.org. The General Counsel is scheduled to present again on the Middle Rio Grande Compact situation at the Water Advocates’ May 15, 2025 3rd Thursday evening workshop. Preregistration is required and will be available soon on the Water Advocates website.
The Legislature must fund the State Engineer to apply AWRM to the Middle Rio Grande or all New Mexicans will suffer the costs and Middle Rio Grande will suffer the severe consequences projected by the State Engineer fact sheet:curtailment and/or costly litigation that may result in severe and unpredictable shocks to the economy and water supply for agricultural and municipal users in the middle and lower Rio Grande.
The Legislature’s choice is simple, but legislators appear unaware they are making that choice. They must fund proactive compact compliance or fund the consequence of not doing so: another high-stakes, risky round of Texas v. New Mexico SCOTUS litigation. With the current national political situation, SCOTUS litigation with Texas seems particularly fraught. The stars seem to be aligned for Texas.
Call to Action
The Senate Finance Committee is the only hope for funding Middle Rio Grande Active Water Resources Management. The State Engineer requested $500,000 for new staff positions to do this work. The Water Advocates are requesting an additional $2 million in non-recurring funds to accelerate this essential work.
The Senate Finance Committee must agree to this funding within the next week or so. Please call your Senator, Senate officers, and the Senate Finance Committee members to ask the Senate to provide the OSE/ISC with the resources they need to protect the Middle Rio Grande. Tell them why they should support this funding. It’s essential to:
Prevent Costly Litigation
Maintain Local Control
Protect Agricultural & Municipal Water Supplies
The Legislative Toolkit at nmwateradvocates.org will be helpful. Use the links and sample language there to find your Senator’s contact information and help you structure your communication. Time is short.
Please act now.
Glossary
Acre-Foot – A unit of volume used to measure large-scale water resources. One acre-foot equals the volume of water required to cover one acre of land to a depth of one foot (approximately 325,851 gallons).
Active Water Resources Management (AWRM) – A New Mexico program authorized by the Legislature in 2003 (Section 72-2-9.1 NMSA 1978) granting the State Engineer additional authority to manage water use, enforce water rights priorities, and ensure compliance with interstate compacts.
Adjudication – A legal process to determine and confirm the extent and priority of water rights. In New Mexico, adjudications take decades to complete, prompting the Legislature to grant the State Engineer provisional management powers under AWRM.
Bureau of Reclamation – A federal agency within the U.S. Department of the Interior that oversees water resource management, particularly in the western states. In the Rio Grande context, it manages reservoirs, irrigation projects, and other infrastructure.
Cumulative Water Delivery Debit or Credit – A cumulative tally of how much water a region has underdelivered (debit) or overdelivered (credit) annually since compact accounting began in 1940.
Curtailment – A restriction or reduction in water use imposed to prevent overuse and maintain required flows or deliveries under a compact or other legal agreement. If New Mexico violates the Rio Grande Compact, curtailment of water rights may result.
Depletion – Water lost from a system through evaporation, consumption by crops, consumption by riparian vegetation, etc., so that it is no longer available for downstream use. Under the Rio Grande Compact, annual accounting is based on river water supplies and the depletion of the river flows measured downstream over the calendar year.
Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) – A water management district in southern New Mexico responsible for delivering irrigation water below Elephant Butte Reservoir. It was completed in 1916.
Elephant Butte Reservoir – A large reservoir on the Rio Grande near Truth or Consequences, New Mexico. Elephant Butte Dam is the first constructed by the Bureau of Reclamation. It holds the Lower Rio Grande’s entire surface water supply.
Interstate Stream Commission (ISC) – A New Mexico state agency charged with ensuring New Mexico’s compliance with interstate water compacts, developing water plans, and protecting the state’s water interests. The author of the blog post formerly served as Director of the ISC.
Lower Rio Grande – Generally refers to the stretch of the Rio Grande below Elephant Butte Reservoir in southern New Mexico, extreme southwest Texas, and Mexico to a point about 100 miles downstream from El Paso. Users in this area rely on the river for agriculture and other water needs.
Middle Rio Grande – The portion of the Rio Grande from the Los Alamos highway bridge to Elephant Butte Dam. This region includes Albuquerque, surrounding municipalities, and agricultural areas within the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD).
Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD) – A political subdivision of the State of New Mexico that manages irrigation, drainage, and flood control in the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Its operations impact water deliveries downstream.
New Mexico Office of the State Engineer (OSE) / State Engineer – The New Mexico state agency tasked with overseeing water rights administration, dam safety, and compliance with interstate compacts. The State Engineer is the chief water official in New Mexico and was granted additional powers under AWRM to enforce priority administration.
Otowi Bridge – A key river-gauging station near Los Alamos, New Mexico, used in Rio Grande Compact accounting to measure the flow of the river and determine delivery obligations for the Middle Rio Grande.
Rio Grande Compact – A 1938 agreement allocating the waters of the Rio Grande among Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas. It is ratified by Congress and the involved states and enforced by the U.S. Supreme Court. The compact sets specific delivery requirements for the Middle and Lower Rio Grande, with limits on allowable “water debt.”
San Juan-Chama Project – A federal project that diverts water from the San Juan River Basin (part of the Colorado River system) into the Rio Grande Basin. This imported water is used in the Middle Rio Grande to supplement local municipal and MRGCD irrigation supplies.
SCOTUS – An acronym for the Supreme Court of the United States. SCOTUS has ultimate authority to interpret and enforce interstate compacts. It presides over water-related disputes between states, including those involving the Rio Grande Compact.
Water flowing down the Rio Grande that is legally owned by and destined for Lower Rio Grande water users is being intercepted and consumed in the Middle Rio Grande.
Figure 1. The Middle Rio Grande’s Plunge Into Compact Water Delivery Debt
