The Politics of Climate Warming Science and Denial
What We Knew, When We Knew It, and What We Did
Introduction: Scope of the Series and Purpose of This Article
The first article in this series of three provides a very brief review and summary from John Vaillant’s book Fire Weather, a 2024 Pulitzer Prize finalist.[1] Vaillant, a Canadian journalist, documents the evolving history of our knowledge linking emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), to climate warming and climate change. We summarized the scientific research that Vaillant presents in chapter 19, its resulting findings, and conclusions.[2]
This second article describes how the United States has reacted to that science, from teaching it to turning its back. The third article will address the morality and ethics of continued greenhouse gas emissions and New Mexico’s responses to increasing aridification.

Fire Weather also is the anchor for this second of three articles. Vailant’s book describes how popular publications reported on the science of climate change and how the politics and fossil fuel industries positions shifted. Popular publications including the New York Times, Washington Post, Life, American Scientist, and others in the 1950s began to report the linkage between fossil fuel emissions and climate. Stories addressed Guy Callendar’s 1938 publication, The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Climate, and Gilbert Plass’ use of infrared spectroscopy to first challenge and then to reconfirm in 1958 that the Earth’s long-wave, infrared radiation of heat to space is retained by atmospheric water vapor and industrial CO2 emissions. This work was further developed in other researchers’ publications.
Early Political Support for Climate Science: The International Geophysical Year (1956–1958)
Fire Weather describes that Roger Revelle, the director of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, testified before the Republican-dominated U.S. House Committee on Appropriations in March 1956 and again in May 1957 regarding research findings and funding needs required for each year’s upcoming work under the International Geophysical Year (IGY). The work sought data about “anything remotely measurable – from the most ancient glacial ice to the most ephemeral atmospheric gases.”
Vaillant quotes part of Revelle’s 1956 statement, “Human beings during the next few decades may, almost in spite of themselves, be doing something that will have a major effect on the climate of the earth … I refer to the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas by our worldwide civilization, which adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere … we are carrying out a tremendous geophysical experiment … If all of this carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere, it will certainly affect the climate of the earth and this may be a very large effect.” Vaillant describes in considerable detail the committee discussions that occurred each year between Revelle and both conservative and liberal committee members. Congress provided the funding requested annually for both year’s work. Vaillant’s discussion concludes that in the time since those hearings, “annual CO2 emissions have increased fivefold from their already-climate-altering 1950s levels.”
Growing Public and Political Recognition of Climate Risk (1950s–Early 1960s)
Vaillant reports in chapter 20 that general and widespread recognition of the growing threats from greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, both public and political, started during the 1950s. For example, in the early 1960s a series of films was shown in schools to educate children on how CO2 buildup in the atmosphere was causing climate warming. Frank Capra produced the films. Bell Telephone (AT&T) funded them.
Vaillant tells a story suggesting that Edward Teller, known as the “father of the hydrogen bomb,” may also have started the awareness of powerful oilmen and their supporters that the link between their products and global warming would threaten their business and investor earnings. Teller, speaking at a 1959 American Petroleum Institute (API) sponsored symposium, raised his concern regarding the continuing atmospheric release of CO2 and its interaction with solar radiation to cause atmospheric warming. He stated, “a temperature rise corresponding to a ten percent increase in carbon dioxide will be sufficient to melt ice caps and submerge New York. All the coastal cities will be covered … I think that this … is more serious than most people tend to believe.” Vaillant suggests this statement likely caused many of the 300 participants to begin to see climate science as a challenge to their profitability.
Industry Confirmation of Climate Risk and Internal Assessment (1965–Early 1980s)

A 1965 report from President Johnson’s scientific advisory committee showed the Keeling Curve (as described near the end of the first article) to be steepening. Vaillant quotes that report: “By the year 2000 the increase in atmospheric CO2 … will almost certainly cause significant changes in the temperature and other properties of the atmosphere.”
Vaillant suggests that report caused the fossil-fuel industry to begin assessing such potential effects independently. This led the president of Bituminous Coal Research to release a 1965 report stating, “There is evidence that the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere is increasing rapidly as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels. … Such changes in temperature will cause melting of the polar ice caps, which, in turn, would result in the inundation of many coastal cities, including New York and London.”
In 1966 the American Petroleum Institute contracted with the Stanford Research Institute for a scientific study of this relationship. That study concluded, “Significant temperature changes are almost certainly to occur by the year 2000” and that the industry must prioritize management of their emissions. Vaillant says the fossil-fuels industry response was to prioritize corporate and stockholder profits.
Vaillant reports that in 1979 Switzerland hosted the first World Climate Conference to “foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that may be adverse to the well-being of humanity.” Leading to that conference, the American Petroleum Institute, Exxon, and most other major oil companies had established a collaborative and objective research team, which included federal scientists, called the CO2 and Climate Task Force. Hundreds of significant research publications resulted on essentially all aspects of the identified relationships and their potential effects.
These findings caused the New York Times to publish in all capital letters, “STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS.” A graph released by Exxon in 1982 showed that the adverse atmospheric warming effects from climate change would become obvious in the 1990s. Vaillant notes that, in fact, climate warming had started to produce noticeable material damages sufficient to cause major insurance companies to start attending global-warming meetings in the early 1980s.
Industry Reversal and the Rise of Organized Climate Science Denial (Mid-1980s–1990s)
In 1984, as scientific research and scientific consensus on the CO2 emissions effects mounted, Vaillant says the American Petroleum Institute and major fossil-fuel industry companies started to consider a need to re-evaluate and turn back their position on CO2 driving climate warming. The American Petroleum Institute, Exxon, and the other major oil companies disbanded their collaborative CO2-climate research group. This was in the days of Ronald Reagan, James Watt, and the Moral Majority, who Vaillant states were suspicious of science in general.
Vaillant’s story continues with NASA’s James Hansen presenting his 1988 testimony to Congress. Hansen plainly stated that climate change poses a clear and present danger to the planet and humanity. His conclusions were based on a hundred years of study and hundreds of recent publications. Subsequently, the term “global warming” appeared for the first time in a New York Times headline. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created to coordinate international research and conclusions.
In this context, the American Association of Manufacturers, the API, Exxon, and other fossil fuel industry giants founded the deceptively named Global Climate Coalition (GCC) in 1988 to lobby against controls on behalf of fossil fuel producers and major users. Their loud public work sought to cast doubt on climate science and discredit James Hansen and other climate scientists as alarmists. Conservative attitudes about emissions-driven climate change turned had decidedly negative by the early 1990s.
International Climate Governance With Growing Industry Influence (2015–2023)
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) convened Paris, France, to negotiate the 2015 Paris Agreement.[3] It covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The United States signed it on Earth Day, 2016. This treaty adopts a long-term goal to keep the rise in global surface temperature “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
Vaillant reported the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24) held during 2018 in Katowice, Poland, included nearly 1,800 fossil fuel industrial lobbyists, who worked against global interests, including efforts to secure financial support to low-income nations in efforts to transition to clean energy.[4] Five years later, Dubai hosted COP28, attended by 2,456 fossil fuels folks.[5]
U.S. Political Withdrawal from Climate Agreements and Institutions (2017–2026)
On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, but honored the three-year notice requirement. President Biden reinstated the United States’ participation in 2021. President Trump on January 20, 2025, cancelled the United States’ participation without advance notice.
In a January 6, 2026, social media post, the White House informed the nation that the President was ending the United States’ participation in the United Nations’ bedrock climate change mitigation treaty signed 34 years ago by all the countries of the earth. The United States is the first to renounce this world-wide agreement.
The president also took the United States out of the International Panel on Climate Change and is closing down federal climate science research facilities and funding and information.
Conclusion: From History to Responsibility
This article traces a clear historical record: climate warming science development of clear conclusions and warnings identified early, confirmed repeatedly, publicly communicated, and understood by political leaders and the fossil-fuel industry decades before organized opposition and denial took hold. The resulting delay has shaped today’s climate risks, governance failures, and policy conflicts—across the world and where we live.
The third and final article in this series turns from history to consequences and responsibility. It will examine how climate warming is reducing New Mexico’s water resources and how climate-induced renewable water supply reductions will constrain future water uses in our arid state. It will also address the moral and ethical dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions—who is put at risk and how the burdens will fall on bears on communities and future generations of New Mexicans.
Finally, this concluding article will outline a path forward for New Mexico and New Mexicans: one grounded in science, water realities, institutional accountability, and informed public choice. The purpose is to apply this information to decisions our elected leaders must make about water, energy, and stewardship in a warming climate.
End Notes
[1] Vaillant, John. 2023. Fire Weather. Alfred A. Knopf. 414 pp.
[2] Mike Marcus, 2025, https://nmwateradvocates.org/how-climate-science-works-and-how-it-is-distorted/
[3] The Paris Agreement. 2015. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement
[4] Katowice Climate Change Conference, 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24). 2018. https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1026851
[5] https://time.com/6342799/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-cop28/






